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Analysis:
By Riley Case Could it be that the United Methodist Church is experiencing renewal? Consider: an analysis of the 2001 annual conference statistics reports indicates that the United Methodist Church in the US is showing its most significant worship increase in more than 30 years. The reports are unofficial and there will be adjustments and corrections yet to come (there always are) but at the moment at appears that:
We would do well to mark the significance of these statistics. We have, in recent years, lamented our continuing membership losses (as well we should). If we judge health solely by membership the best we can speak of is a slowing rate of decline. Let's adjust our thinking. Church growth people tell us the best indicator of church vitality is worship attendance. By this indicator our United Methodist Church is turning the corner! Let's praise God! Actually, for the past 10 years the worship attendance in the denomination has kept steady. While we have lost members the number of people in worship has at least remained constant. We reported 3,478,894 average attendance in 1991 and 3,489,961 in 1999 (the last year for which we have official statistics). During the I 990s we stopped the discouraging decline that had characterized our church since the 1960s. But now we claim something better than just "remaining even." Consider this statistic: in 1999, 17 of 61 annual conferences showed an attendance increase. In 2000, 25 of 61 annual conferences showed an attendance increase. In 2001, 44 of 59 conferences showed an attendance increase. Of course much of this increase has been regional. Let's give credit where credit is due. The Southeastern Jurisdiction with its 37,000 additional worshippers added more attendance in 2001 than the total numbers of worshippers in the entire Pacific Northwest annual conference. From 1993 to 1999 the Southeastern and South Central Jurisdictions added over 100,000 new worshippers (while the other three jurisdictions all showed decline). There are now more United Methodists in either Georgia or North Carolina than in all the Western Jurisdiction. The two southern jurisdictions are also home to the big churches. Florida has more churches with an attendance of over 1,000 (22) than all of the Northeastern, Western, and North Central Jurisdiction combined (20) (1999 statistics) (of course Florida statistics would dim considerably if not for all the Hoosier snow-birds). But overall the statistics are encouraging and the trends positive. Our denomination may be bucking the decline that shows all the mainline denominations in decline. Can we draw any conclusions at this point? There are many explanations, and the discussion around these will be very interesting, but let me be first to offer some observations.
Is this good news just wishful thinking? Do the statistics simply represent a one-year bump, perhaps the result of 9/Il? The next few years will tell for sure. In the meantime we rejoice in what God is doing in the United Methodist Church. (Next month - Church statistics and good news in the Indiana Area) Last updated on 01/14/2004 |
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